Tropical Storm MARIA

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TROPICAL STORM MARIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 09 2011
 
MARIA HAS DEVELOPED A BAND OF STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE THIS EVENING...AND THERE HAS BEEN EVIDENCE OF CYCLONIC
ROTATION IN RADAR DISPLAYS FROM BARBADOS...MARTINIQUE...AND
GUADELOUPE.  HOWEVER...THIS HAS NOT YET TRANSLATED INTO ANY
INCREASED ORGANIZATION IN THE WIND FIELD ACCORDING TO DATA FROM AN
AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT.  THE AIRCRAFT DID NOT
FIND STRONG WINDS DURING ITS MISSION...ALTHOUGH IT LIKELY DID NOT
SAMPLE FAR ENOUGH FROM THE CENTER TO MEASURE THE STRONG WINDS IN
THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS 40 KT
BASED ON RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM A FRENCH BUOY EAST OF THE CENTER
AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF STRONGER WINDS FARTHER NORTH.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/12.  MARIA IS ON THE
SOUTH SIDE OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...WHILE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW NORTH-NORTHWEST OF THE STORM NEAR
24N63W.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO PERSIST FOR
48 HOURS OR SO...THEN WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT THAT
MARIA WILL MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...
THEN GRADUALLY TURN NORTHWARD AND NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE
TO THE APPROACHING TROUGH.  FOR THE FIRST 72 HOURS...THE NEW
FORECAST TRACK IS ALMOST IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS
DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.  AFTER THAT...THE TRACK
IS SHIFTED TO THE EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND LIES A LITTLE TO
THE LEFT OF...AND SLOWER...THAN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE.
 
MARIA HAS DEVELOPED A GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN...ALTHOUGH
THERE MAY BE SOME RESIDUAL SHEAR UNDERCUTTING THE OUTFLOW.  THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE UNANIMOUSLY FORECASTS THE STORM TO STRENGTHEN...
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT STATE OF DISORGANIZATION SUGGESTS THAT THE
INITIAL STRENGTHENING SHOULD BE SLOW.  THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
CALLS FOR A SLOWER DEVELOPMENT RATE DURING THE FIRST 24-36 HOURS...
THEN CATCHES UP WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  LATER IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...MARIA IS FORECAST TO COME CLOSE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL LOW.  THE DYNAMICAL MODELS HAVE A VARIETY OF SOLUTIONS
FOR HOW THE TWO SYSTEMS WILL INTERACT...ALTHOUGH NONE OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOW MARIA WEAKENING DUE TO THE INTERACTION.  THE LATTER
PART OF THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS IDENTICAL TO THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND
LGEM MODELS.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 15.1N  59.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 16.2N  61.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 17.8N  63.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 19.3N  65.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 48H  12/0000Z 20.8N  67.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
 72H  13/0000Z 23.5N  70.0W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  14/0000Z 27.5N  71.0W   80 KT  90 MPH
120H  15/0000Z 34.0N  69.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
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