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Tropical Depression FOURTEEN (Text)

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL142011
1100 PM AST TUE SEP 06 2011

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE DEPRESSION HAS NOT BECOME ANY BETTER
ORGANIZED OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
WERE 2.0/30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 00Z...AND THAT REMAINS THE
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE MOVING
THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT THAT SHOULD SUPPORT STRENGTHENING THROUGH
NEXT 5 DAYS...WITH GENERALLY LOW SHEAR AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
SSTS. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS NOT TERRIBLY
ENTHUSIASTIC AND SHOWS ONLY SLOW STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR OR A
LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL...SHOWING THE CYCLONE BECOMING A
TROPICAL STORM IN 12 HOURS AND APPROACHING HURRICANE INTENSITY BY
THE END OF THE PERIOD. 

THE LATEST SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT THE CENTER IS LOCATED A
LITTLE SOUTH AND EAST OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES...YIELDING AN INITIAL
MOTION OF 280/16. THE CYCLONE SHOULD MOVE WESTWARD OR
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT 3 DAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE ATLANTIC
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATE IN THE PERIOD THE CYCLONE REACHES THE
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE WEAKENING RIDGE...WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND A GRADUAL DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED.
WHILE THE GUIDANCE REMAINS IN OVERALL AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...
THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME SPREAD IN THE FORWARD SPEED AMONG THE
MODELS. THE GFS AND GFDL ARE FASTEST THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH THE
ECMWF AND UKMET ON THE SLOW SIDE OF THE ENVELOPE. OVERALL...THE NEW
NHC TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH
THE PERIOD...TRENDING TOWARD THE SPEED OF THE TVCA MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS. THROUGH 72 HOURS A SMALL SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT WAS MADE
TO THE TRACK FORECAST DUE TO THE MORE SOUTHERLY INITIAL POSITION.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0300Z 11.6N  38.1W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1200Z 12.2N  40.8W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  08/0000Z 12.9N  44.6W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  08/1200Z 13.6N  48.5W   45 KT  50 MPH
 48H  09/0000Z 14.4N  52.0W   50 KT  60 MPH
 72H  10/0000Z 16.0N  58.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 96H  11/0000Z 18.0N  63.5W   60 KT  70 MPH
120H  12/0000Z 21.0N  67.5W   65 KT  75 MPH
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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