Tropical Storm LEE
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TROPICAL STORM LEE WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
0900 UTC SUN SEP 04 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LEE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
29.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 92.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 11 18 26 52 65 NA
TROP DEPRESSION 38 48 42 37 32 23 NA
TROPICAL STORM 60 40 38 34 15 11 NA
HURRICANE X 1 2 3 1 1 NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 X 1 2 2 1 1 NA
HUR CAT 2 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 3 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X NA
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X NA
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 30KT 30KT 30KT 20KT 20KT NA
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z SUN 18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z SUN 06Z MON 18Z MON 06Z TUE 06Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
COLUMBIA SC 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3)
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 1( 9) X( 9)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) X( 7)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7) 2( 9) 1(10) X(10)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 2(12) X(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 6(18) 1(19) X(19)
MONTGOMERY AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
PENSACOLA FL 34 2 3( 5) 8(13) 9(22) 2(24) 1(25) X(25)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 1 2( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11) 1(12) X(12)
MOBILE AL 34 7 5(12) 12(24) 8(32) 1(33) 1(34) X(34)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) X( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
GULFPORT MS 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
GULFPORT MS 50 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
STENNIS SC 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
STENNIS SC 50 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
BURAS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BURAS LA 50 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 8 4(12) 3(15) 1(16) 1(17) X(17) X(17)
JACKSON MS 34 13 5(18) 3(21) 2(23) 1(24) 1(25) X(25)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 1 2( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 3 2( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 2 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5) X( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 99 X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99) X(99)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) X( 4) X( 4)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 10 3(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13) X(13)
GALVESTON TX 34 3 3( 6) 1( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7) X( 7)
HOUSTON TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 2 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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