Tropical Depression THIRTEEN
ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132011
1500 UTC FRI SEP 02 2011
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 2 2 4 5 9 17 44
TROP DEPRESSION 36 16 16 11 17 25 29
TROPICAL STORM 60 74 60 62 58 49 22
HURRICANE 1 7 20 23 17 9 5
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 1 7 17 19 14 7 4
HUR CAT 2 X 1 2 3 2 1 X
HUR CAT 3 X X 1 1 X 1 X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 35KT 45KT 55KT 55KT 50KT 40KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
12Z FRI AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 12Z FRI 00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
00Z SAT 12Z SAT 00Z SUN 12Z SUN 12Z MON 12Z TUE 12Z WED
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
ATLANTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
AUGUSTA GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
SAVANNAH GA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
MAYPORT NS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
JACKSONVILLE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7)
DAYTONA BEACH 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6)
ORLANDO FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6)
COCOA BEACH FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
PATRICK AFB 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
FT PIERCE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3)
MARCO ISLAND 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3)
FT MYERS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
VENICE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 2( 6)
TAMPA FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 3( 7)
CEDAR KEY FL 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 3(10)
TALLAHASSEE FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 7(11) 3(14)
ST MARKS FL 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4) 8(12) 3(15)
APALACHICOLA 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 3(19)
APALACHICOLA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4)
GFMX 290N 850W 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 5( 7) 9(16) 3(19)
GFMX 290N 850W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 1( 4)
PANAMA CITY FL 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 10(20) 3(23)
PANAMA CITY FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
COLUMBUS GA 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 6( 9) 3(12)
MONTGOMERY AL 34 X X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 5( 8) 7(15) 3(18)
PENSACOLA FL 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 7(10) 11(21) 9(30) 4(34)
PENSACOLA FL 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 3( 6) 1( 7)
GFMX 290N 870W 34 X 2( 2) 3( 5) 5(10) 12(22) 8(30) 3(33)
GFMX 290N 870W 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) 4( 7) 1( 8)
GFMX 290N 870W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1)
MOBILE AL 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 13(19) 13(32) 7(39) 2(41)
MOBILE AL 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 3( 9) 1(10)
MOBILE AL 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1)
GULFPORT MS 34 1 3( 4) 8(12) 17(29) 13(42) 6(48) 2(50)
GULFPORT MS 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5) 6(11) 3(14) X(14)
GULFPORT MS 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
STENNIS SC 34 1 4( 5) 12(17) 19(36) 13(49) 4(53) 2(55)
STENNIS SC 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7) 7(14) 2(16) X(16)
STENNIS SC 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
BURAS LA 34 1 9(10) 17(27) 15(42) 12(54) 3(57) 2(59)
BURAS LA 50 X X( X) 3( 3) 6( 9) 7(16) 2(18) 1(19)
BURAS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
GFMX 280N 890W 34 2 6( 8) 12(20) 7(27) 12(39) 4(43) 3(46)
GFMX 280N 890W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) 4( 7) 3(10) 1(11)
GFMX 280N 890W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2)
JACKSON MS 34 X 1( 1) 3( 4) 12(16) 10(26) 6(32) 1(33)
JACKSON MS 50 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) X( 5)
NEW ORLEANS LA 34 1 10(11) 18(29) 18(47) 10(57) 3(60) 1(61)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 9(11) 7(18) 2(20) X(20)
NEW ORLEANS LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 910W 34 23 24(47) 14(61) 4(65) 5(70) X(70) 1(71)
GFMX 280N 910W 50 1 5( 6) 6(12) 3(15) 2(17) 2(19) X(19)
GFMX 280N 910W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4)
BATON ROUGE LA 34 1 9(10) 17(27) 16(43) 13(56) 3(59) X(59)
BATON ROUGE LA 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 8(10) 6(16) 1(17) 1(18)
BATON ROUGE LA 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
NEW IBERIA LA 34 1 16(17) 22(39) 10(49) 12(61) 1(62) X(62)
NEW IBERIA LA 50 X 1( 1) 4( 5) 7(12) 6(18) X(18) X(18)
NEW IBERIA LA 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 280N 930W 34 6 21(27) 16(43) 3(46) 8(54) X(54) 1(55)
GFMX 280N 930W 50 X 3( 3) 5( 8) 2(10) 4(14) X(14) 1(15)
GFMX 280N 930W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
SHREVEPORT LA 34 X 1( 1) 2( 3) 4( 7) 7(14) 1(15) 1(16)
PORT ARTHUR TX 34 1 4( 5) 9(14) 8(22) 11(33) X(33) X(33)
PORT ARTHUR TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 3( 6) X( 6) X( 6)
GALVESTON TX 34 1 3( 4) 7(11) 4(15) 8(23) 1(24) X(24)
GALVESTON TX 50 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
HOUSTON TX 34 X 2( 2) 4( 6) 4(10) 6(16) 1(17) X(17)
AUSTIN TX 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3)
FREEPORT TX 34 X 2( 2) 6( 8) 3(11) 6(17) X(17) 1(18)
GFMX 280N 950W 34 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 4(13) 7(20) X(20) 1(21)
PORT O CONNOR 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) 1(10) X(10)
CORPUS CHRISTI 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) 1( 4)
GFMX 270N 960W 34 X 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 3( 9) X( 9) 1(10)
GFMX 250N 960W 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3)
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
NNNN
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