Tropical Storm KATIA
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TROPICAL STORM KATIA WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122011
0900 UTC TUE AUG 30 2011
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM KATIA WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 11.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 31.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
EASTERN DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME
CENTRAL DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED 1 1 1 1 X 1 X
TROP DEPRESSION 11 7 5 2 3 1 1
TROPICAL STORM 86 78 58 40 27 19 15
HURRICANE 2 14 36 57 70 79 84
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 2 12 30 39 40 35 33
HUR CAT 2 X 2 4 13 19 25 24
HUR CAT 3 X 1 2 5 10 15 22
HUR CAT 4 X X X 1 2 3 5
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 40KT 50KT 60KT 70KT 80KT 90KT 100KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 06Z THU 06Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
SAINT MAARTEN 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 5( 5)
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 6( 6)
BARBUDA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 8( 9)
BARBUDA 50 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
BARBUDA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
ANTIGUA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 8( 8)
ANTIGUA 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
GUADELOUPE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 6( 7)
GUADELOUPE 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1)
AVES 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 3( 3)
DOMINICA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 5( 6)
MARTINIQUE 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 4( 5)
SAINT LUCIA 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 4( 4)
BARBADOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 3( 4)
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FORECASTER BRENNAN
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