Hurricane IRENE

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BULLETIN
HURRICANE IRENE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  13A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
200 PM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011
 
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REACH THE TURKS AND CAICOS
ISLANDS VERY SOON...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...20.7N 71.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM S OF GRAND TURK ISLAND
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM NNW OF PUERTO PLATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...160 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...977 MB...28.85 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS DISCONTINUED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING EAST OF CABO FRANCES VIEJO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* THE SOUTHEASTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCES VIEJO
WESTWARD TO THE HAITI BORDER
* NORTH COAST OF HAITI FROM LE MOLE ST. NICHOLAS EASTWARD TO THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE IRENE WAS LOCATED
BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT NEAR LATITUDE
20.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.2 WEST. IRENE IS MOVING TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF
IRENE WILL MOVE NEAR OR OVER THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS THIS
EVENING...NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS TONIGHT
AND WEDNESDAY...AND NEAR OR OVER THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON
THURSDAY.
 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 100 MPH...160 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS.  IRENE IS A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE.  STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND IRENE COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205
MILES...335 KM.  AN OFFICIAL WEATHER OBSERVING SITE AT
PROVIDENCIALES IN THE CAICOS ISLANDS RECENTLY REPORTED A WIND GUST
TO 50 MPH.
 
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORT BY RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WAS
977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS WITH HURRICANE CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO REACH THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS LATE TONIGHT WITH HURRICANE
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY WEDNESDAY.  TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS BY LATE WEDNESDAY...WITH
HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY.
 
STORM SURGE...AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER
LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS 9 TO 13 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF
THE CENTER OF IRENE. A STORM SURGE WILL ALSO RAISE WATER LEVELS BY
AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST OF HAITI. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
LARGE AND DANGEROUS WAVES. STORM SURGE IN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TODAY. 
 
RAINFALL...IRENE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS PUERTO RICO.  RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE EXPECTED OVER NORTHERN HISPANIOLA...
WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES POSSIBLE OVER
HIGHER TERRAIN.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH
FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES IN AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN.  RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS OF 5 TO 10 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEASTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BLAKE
 
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