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Hurricane IRENE (Text)

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HURRICANE IRENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL092011
1100 AM EDT SAT AUG 27 2011
 
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT IRENE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 1130 UTC JUST WEST OF CAPE
LOOKOUT NORTH CAROLINA.  THE ESTIMATED INTENSITY AT LANDFALL WAS
75 KT.  THIS WAS BASED ON A PEAK FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 98 KT AND A
SFMR SURFACE WIND OF 69 KT.  A DROPSONDE RELEASED BY A NOAA
AIRCRAFT MEASURED A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 951 MB AROUND THE TIME
OF LANDFALL.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN 75 KT.
 
IRENE MOVED ALMOST DUE NORTHWARD BETWEEN 0600 AND 1200 UTC...BUT
HAS WOBBLED BACK TO THE RIGHT SINCE THAT TIME.  SMOOTHING THROUGH
THESE TEMPORARY CHANGES IN HEADING YIELDS AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 015/13 KT.  IRENE SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL
ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH PASSING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.  AFTER
48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND
TURN NORTHEASTWARD THEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD.  THE MODELS ARE TIGHTLY
CLUSTERED FOR THE FIRST 2-3 DAYS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND THERE IS
HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST INTO EASTERN CANADA.  THE
UPDATED NHC FORECAST HAS BEEN NUDGED WESTWARD TO BE IN BETTER
AGREEMENT WITH LATEST ECMWF AND GFS SOLUTIONS.
 
IRENE IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES ALONG THE EAST
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES DUE TO LAND INTERACTION...DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT...AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.  IF THE CENTER OF
IRENE MOVES MORE OVER LAND THAN FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...IT COULD BE SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN PREDICTED.  WHETHER IRENE
IS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL MAKE
LITTLE DIFFERENCE IN THE EXPECTED IMPACTS OF DAMAGING WINDS...A
DANGEROUS STORM SURGE...AND FLOODING RAINS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  27/1500Z 35.2N  76.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 12H  28/0000Z 37.2N  75.5W   70 KT  80 MPH
 24H  28/1200Z 40.3N  73.9W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  29/0000Z 44.3N  71.5W   60 KT  70 MPH...INLAND
 48H  29/1200Z 48.7N  67.7W   45 KT  50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 72H  30/1200Z 55.5N  55.0W   40 KT  45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 96H  31/1200Z 58.0N  36.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H  01/1200Z 59.0N  26.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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