Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
0300 UTC THU AUG 04 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  71.0W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  71.0W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  70.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 17.9N  72.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 20.0N  74.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.1N  76.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 23.8N  77.4W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 27.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  35SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0000Z 31.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0000Z 35.0N  69.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  71.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
 
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