Tropical Storm EMILY

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TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
2100 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND FOR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  65.4W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  65.4W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  64.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 16.2N  66.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 17.3N  68.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 18.5N  70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 20.5N  72.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N  76.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE   0SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 28.0N  78.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 32.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  65.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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