Tropical Depression EMILY

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 07 2011
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE STRUCTURE OF EMILY DURING THE
LAST SEVERAL HOURS. SATELLITE AND EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGEST
THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER REMAINS RATHER ELONGATED...DISPLACED
NORTHEAST OF A BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE ESSENTIALLY UNCHANGED...SO THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT.
 
THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE TO NO INTENSIFICATION. THIS
WOULD SEEM TO BE THE CASE PARTLY BECAUSE OF THE MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT
IN WHICH EMILY IS EMBEDDED BUT ALSO BECAUSE OF THE CYCLONE'S
CURRENT ORGANIZATION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND SHIPS ANALYSES
INDICATE THE PRESENCE OF RELATIVELY DRIER AIR NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
CYCLONE WHICH COULD BE A FACTOR.  UW CIMSS AND SHIPS SHEAR ANALYSES
ALSO INDICATE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE DEPRESSION
WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST IN THE SHORT TERM BEFORE BECOMING
WESTERLY AND INCREASING WITHIN 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL MODELS NOW SUGGEST
THAT EMILY COULD DEGENERATE INTO A TROUGH AROUND OR JUST AFTER THAT
TIME BEFORE ULTIMATELY MERGING WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS ADJUSTED DOWNWARD IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS/LGEM MODELS. FOLLOWING THE TREND IN THE GLOBAL MODELS...
DISSIPATION IS NOW INDICATED SOONER.
 
THE CURRENT MOTION ESTIMATE IS 010/09.  UPPER-AIR DATA INDICATE THAT
EMILY IS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE WESTERLIES...ON THE NORTHWEST
SIDE OF A LOW-/MID-LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED NEAR 26N68W.  THIS
PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW FOR A NORTH-NORTHEAST AND THEN NORTHEAST
HEADING DURING THE NEXT 6-12 HOURS...WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED.  AFTER THAT...AN AMPLIFYING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES AND THE CANADIAN MARITIME PROVINCES
SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE OR ITS REMNANTS TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD OR
EVEN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SIGNIFICANT ACCELERATION. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE BUT REMAINS ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  07/0900Z 28.5N  77.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  07/1800Z 29.9N  75.9W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  08/0600Z 31.7N  72.3W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  08/1800Z 33.4N  66.7W   30 KT  35 MPH
 48H  09/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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