Tropical Storm ARLENE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL012011
400 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2011
 
SATELLITE IMAGES AND SURFACE DATA INDICATE THAT THE CENTER OF ARLENE
IS MAKING LANDFALL ON THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR CABO ROJO. WHILE
ASCAT DATA SHOWED WINDS NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 40 KT AROUND 0312
UTC...BANDING HAS INCREASED NOTABLY SINCE THAT TIME IN THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. SUBJECTIVE SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES ARE BOTH 55 KT AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS SET TO THAT
VALUE. THESE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING WELL NORTH OF THE CENTER IN
THE STRONG BANDING FEATURES. WEAKENING SHOULD BEGIN DURING THE NEXT
FEW HOURS AS THE CENTER MOVES INLAND. A RAPID DECAY IS LIKELY LATER
TODAY AS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN OF MEXICO.
 
ARLENE ACCELERATED AS IT APPROACHED THE COAST OVERNIGHT...AND IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 8 KT. MOST OF THE MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER WILL MOVE A LITTLE SLOWER AND DECOUPLE FROM THE
MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE FORMER IS BLOCKED BY THE SIERRA MADRE
ORIENTAL MOUNTAIN RANGE. BECAUSE OF THE FASTER INITIAL MOTION...
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST NOW SHOWS ARLENE DISSIPATED BY 36 HOURS.
 
WIND RADII HAVE BEEN MODIFIED BASED UPON THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS AND
DATA FROM NOAA BUOY 42055.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  30/0900Z 21.5N  97.3W   55 KT  65 MPH...
 12H  30/1800Z 21.4N  98.3W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 24H  01/0600Z 21.0N  99.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  01/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
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