ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010 800 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010 THERE IS A CIRCULAR AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION...BUT IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS ON THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THERE ARE NO REPORTS OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS ON THE COAST OF BAJA OR MAINLAND MEXICO. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. THEREAFTER...THE DEPRESSION WILL INTERACT WITH LAND...AND THE SHEAR WILL INCREASE RESULTING IN WEAKENING. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW BETWEEN A HIGH OVER WESTERN MEXICO AND AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST. A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WILL BRING THE DEPRESSION INLAND OVER MEXICO TONIGHT. THE DEPRESSION SHOULD DISSIPATE IN ABOUT 24 HOURS OR SO. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS...AND SOME AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE TROPICAL STORM FORCE WIND GUSTS ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/1500Z 26.8N 111.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/0000Z 28.6N 111.8W 30 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 23/1200Z 31.0N 112.0W 20 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED INLAND $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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