ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010 200 AM PDT WED SEP 22 2010 THE CENTER OF GEORGETTE HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. A NEW BURST OF CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NEAR AND NORTHWEST OF THE CENTER IN SATELLITE IMAGERY...AND THERE IS SOME WEAK BANDING SEEN IN DATA FROM THE MEXICAN RADAR AT CIUDAD OBREGON. AN ASCAT OVERPASS AT 0506 UTC SHOWED A FEW 30 KT VECTORS...AND THAT IS THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 345/12. GEORGETTE IS ON THE WEST SIDE OF A MID/UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND IS MOVING TOWARD A MID/UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS COMBINATION SHOULD RESULT IN GEORGETTE GRADUALLY TURNING TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WITH THE CENTER MOVING THROUGH NORTHWESTERN MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS FORECAST GEORGETTE TO REGAIN TROPICAL-STORM STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL...WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM MODELS DO NOT. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SPLITS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THESE AND CALLS FOR LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH BEFORE LANDFALL. THAT BEING SAID...THE CURRENT CONVECTIVE BURST AND A DECREASE IN THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR SUGGEST THAT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE. THUS...THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT ALONG THE COAST OF THE MEXICAN MAINLAND. GEORGETTE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND DISSIPATE COMPLETELY BY 48 HR. FINAL DISSIPATION COULD OCCUR EARLIER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST...AS NONE OF THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING THE UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0900Z 25.8N 110.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1800Z 27.8N 111.1W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0600Z 30.4N 111.3W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/1800Z 33.1N 111.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BEVEN NNNN
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