ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION GEORGETTE DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122010 800 PM PDT TUE SEP 21 2010 THE CENTER APPEARS TO HAVE BEGUN TO MOVE OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA. NO REPORTS OF STRONG WINDS HAVE BEEN RECEIVED...SO THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 30 KT MAY BE GENEROUS. ALTHOUGH THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 18 HOURS...THE SMALL CIRCULATION HAS BEEN DISRUPTED DUE TO ITS INTERACTION WITH LAND...SO SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION SEEMS UNLIKELY. INDEED...NONE OF THE INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE MAKES GEORGETTE A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HOWEVER...SINCE OUR SKILL IN PREDICTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CHANGE IS QUITE LIMITED...IT IS PRUDENT TO HAVE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FOR A PORTION OF THE MAINLAND MEXICAN COAST. GEORGETTE SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER LANDFALL AND MAY DISSIPATE SOONER THAN INDICATED IN THIS FORECAST. THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SLIGHTLY FASTER 340/11. ONLY A SLIGHT EASTWARD SHIFT HAS BEEN MADE TO THE TRACK FORECAST. GEORGETTE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWARD AT A SLIGHTLY FASTER FORWARD SPEED AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTERWARDS...A MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CALIFORNIA SHOULD CARRY GEORGETTES REMNANTS INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 22/0300Z 24.6N 110.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 22/1200Z 26.5N 111.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 23/0000Z 29.1N 111.3W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 23/1200Z 31.7N 111.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 24/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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