ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112010 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 INFRARED AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT A CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND IS BECOMING MORE DEFINED AND NOW WRAPS FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT CLOCKWISE TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH OF THE CENTER. MEXICAN RADAR DATA FROM PUERTO ANGEL ALSO SHOWS THIS STRUCTURE WITH THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION BECOMING MORE PRONOUNCED. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 0000 UTC WERE T2.0/30 KT AND T1.5/25 KT...RESPECTIVELY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. A MID-LEVEL LOW OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK STEERING FLOW...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 300/5. THE SHORT-TERM MOTION OF THE CENTER COULD BE DICTATED BY LOCAL TOPOGRAPHIC EFFECTS...BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM VERY NEAR THE COAST OR ONSHORE WITHIN 12 HOURS. AN ALTERNATE SCENARIO IS PROVIDED BY THE GFDL...WHICH ALSO BRINGS THE CYCLONE NEAR THE COAST WITHIN 12 HOURS BUT THEN SHOWS IT PARALLELING THE SHORE FOR ANOTHER 2-3 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE FORMER SCENARIO AND SHOWS THE CYCLONE DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. WITH THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE NOTED IN SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY...THE DEPRESSION COULD BE CLOSE TO BECOMING A TROPICAL STORM. THE STATISTICAL INTENSITY GUIDANCE STILL SHOWS THE DEPRESSION REACHING TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH JUST BEFORE IT MOVES INLAND...SO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE MAIN HAZARD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS HEAVY RAINFALL OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 04/0300Z 15.5N 95.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 04/1200Z 16.0N 95.7W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 05/0000Z 16.8N 96.1W 25 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BERG/BRENNAN NNNN
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