ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102010 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 03 2010 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE LOW LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO HAS ACQUIRED SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION TO BE CONSIDERED A TROPICAL CYCLONE. NIGHTTIME VISIBLE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION CENTER LIES NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE ON THE CONVECTIVE MASS...VALIDATING SHIPS MODEL ANALYSES WHICH INDICATE MODERATELY EASTERLY WIND SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. IN ADDITION...A 0458 UTC ASCAT PASS INDICATED A SWATH OF 25 KT WINDS WELL REMOVED FROM THE CIRCULATION CENTER OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE AT 2.5/35 KT AT 0600 UTC...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET MORE CONSERVATIVELY AT 30 KT...CONSISTENT WITH THE EARLIER ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION COULD GET A LITTLE STRONGER...EASTERLY SHEAR AND ITS PROJECTED PATH OVER COOLER WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THE OFFICIAL NHC WIND SPEED FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS...NONE OF WHICH SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7...ALTHOUGH WITH A SKETCHY HISTORY OF THE CENTER LOCATION DURING THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THIS ESTIMATE IS RATHER UNCERTAIN. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE DEPRESSION TURNING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP LAYER ANTICYCLONE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THE CYCLONE BECOME SHALLOWER LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE GUIDANCE SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST PRIOR TO DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/0900Z 19.7N 109.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.1N 110.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.5N 112.1W 30 KT 36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.8N 113.7W 25 KT 48HR VT 05/0600Z 21.1N 115.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 06/0600Z 21.0N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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