Hurricane FRANK
ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FRANK WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010
0900 UTC THU AUG 26 2010
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FRANK WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE
17.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR
70 KTS...80 MPH...130 KM/HR.
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)
PACIFIC DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT 7 HOURS FROM Z TIME
HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME
I. MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITY TABLE
CHANCES THAT THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEED OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE WITHIN ANY OF THE FOLLOWING CATEGORIES
AT EACH OFFICIAL FORECAST TIME DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT. X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS
THAN 1 PERCENT.
- - - MAXIMUM WIND SPEED (INTENSITY) PROBABILITIES - - -
VALID TIME 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR 12 24 36 48 72 96 120
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
DISSIPATED X X 1 2 9 29 38
TROP DEPRESSION X 1 6 13 27 38 36
TROPICAL STORM 7 34 61 59 53 31 24
HURRICANE 93 65 33 26 11 3 1
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
HUR CAT 1 81 53 28 21 9 2 1
HUR CAT 2 11 9 4 4 1 X X
HUR CAT 3 2 3 1 1 X X X
HUR CAT 4 X X X X X X X
HUR CAT 5 X X X X X X X
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
FCST MAX WIND 75KT 70KT 60KT 55KT 45KT 30KT 25KT
II. WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST
...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...
...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...
...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE
IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING
AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)
(CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN
06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.
PROBABILITIES FOR 64 KT ARE SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE
PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.
- - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -
FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM
TIME 06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO
18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
LOCATION KT
P ABREOJOS 34 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 1( 4)
CABO SAN LUCAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 3( 6) 2( 8) X( 8)
SAN JOSE CABO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 2( 5) 2( 7) X( 7)
LA PAZ 34 X X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) 1( 6)
LORETO 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3)
ISLA SOCORRO 34 36 45(81) 3(84) X(84) X(84) X(84) X(84)
ISLA SOCORRO 50 2 31(33) 3(36) X(36) X(36) X(36) X(36)
ISLA SOCORRO 64 X 13(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) X(14) X(14)
ISLA CLARION 34 1 3( 4) 16(20) 13(33) 4(37) 2(39) X(39)
ISLA CLARION 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 4( 6) 1( 7) 1( 8) X( 8)
ISLA CLARION 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2)
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FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN
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