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Tropical Storm FRANK (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
800 PM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010
 
ONLY A SMALL SPOT OF CONVECTION REMAINS IN THE WESTERN QUADRANT
OF FRANK...OTHERWISE THE CIRCULATION IS FULLY EXPOSED.  SATELLITE
CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DROPPING AS FAST AS THE RULES ALLOW.  THE
INITIAL WIND SPEED IS LOWERED TO 45 KT...AND THAT MAY BE GENEROUS.
CONTINUED WEAKENING IS PROBABLE DUE TO PERSISTENT EASTERLY SHEAR
AND THE CYCLONE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND NOW SHOWS FRANK
DEGENERATING INTO A REMNANT LOW IN 36 HOURS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 325/6.  A GENTLE TURN TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST SEEMS LIKELY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE WEAKENS TO THE NORTH OF FRANK.  MOST OF THE MODELS HAVE
SHIFTED EASTWARD ON THIS RUN...AND THE NHC FORECAST FOLLOWS SUIT.
DISSIPATION OF THIS SMALL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED IN ABOUT FOUR
DAYS...IF NOT SOONER.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0300Z 19.8N 112.6W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1200Z 20.5N 112.8W    35 KT
 24HR VT     29/0000Z 21.2N 112.8W    30 KT
 36HR VT     29/1200Z 21.6N 112.6W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48HR VT     30/0000Z 21.9N 112.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     31/0000Z 22.0N 111.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
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FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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