ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 200 AM PDT FRI AUG 27 2010 FRANK CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN. THE EYE FEATURE THAT HAS BEEN APPARENT IN MICROWAVE DATA FOR THE PAST DAY OR SO IS NO LONGER EVIDENT. IN ADDITION...THE CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST HAS SHRUNK AND ERODED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 65 KT AND 77 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY...AND ON THIS BASIS THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 70 KT. A COMBINATION OF MODERATE EAST-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...AND STEADILY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 285/9...AND IS RIGHT ALONG THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. THE TRACK FORECAST REASONING IS UNCHANGED FROM EARLIER. A WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS FOLLOWED BY A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION AS A DEEP LAYER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES. THIS TRACK FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. AN AUTOMATED WEATHER OBSERVING SITE MAINTAINED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY ON SOCORRO ISLAND REPORTED A WIND GUST OF 44 KT AT 0300 UTC AND A PRESSURE OF 997.1 MB. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.6N 112.1W 70 KT 12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 113.2W 65 KT 24HR VT 28/0600Z 19.7N 114.1W 55 KT 36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.5N 114.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.3N 114.2W 30 KT 96HR VT 31/0600Z 23.5N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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