ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM CCA HURRICANE FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER 19...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092010 200 AM PDT THU AUG 26 2010 CORRECTED FOR 120 HOUR FORECAST STATUS A 0422 UTC METOP-A AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED A CLOSED EYE-LIKE FEATURE OVER THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER...IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER OR NOT THIS FEATURE IS AT THE SURFACE. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS IN THE BD-CURVE INFRARED ENHANCEMENT THAT AN EYE CURRENTLY EXISTS. SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 75 KT AND 65 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS A COMPROMISE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 70 KT. THE NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN WEAK...SO SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO BEFORE A GRADUAL WEAKENING COMMENCES. FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW AT THE END OF THE PERIOD...DUE TO COOLER WATER AND A MORE STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A ROCK STEADY 285/12 KT. FRANK SHOULD CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. BEYOND 48 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO SLOW AND TURN NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO AN AMPLIFYING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVING TOWARD THE WEST COAST OF UNITED STATES AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. BECAUSE OF THE CONTINUED RATHER LARGE SPREAD AND UNCERTAINTY IN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND DAY 3...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS AND IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/0900Z 17.5N 108.7W 70 KT 12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.9N 110.1W 75 KT 24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.3N 111.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 27/1800Z 18.9N 112.9W 60 KT 48HR VT 28/0600Z 19.7N 113.6W 55 KT 72HR VT 29/0600Z 21.0N 114.3W 45 KT 96HR VT 30/0600Z 22.0N 114.3W 30 KT 120HR VT 31/0600Z 23.0N 114.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN NNNN
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