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Tropical Storm FRANK (Text)

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TROPICAL STORM FRANK DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP092010
200 PM PDT MON AUG 23 2010
 
THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH FRANK HAS CONTINUED TO
ERODE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...ALTHOUGH SOME MODEST CONVECTION
HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPED OVER AND TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER.
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE T3.0/45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
AT 1800 UTC...AND THAT WILL BE THE INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.
 
MICROWAVE AND VISIBLE SATELLITE FIX POSITIONS INDICATE FRANK HAS
BEEN MOVING AT 285/08...AFTER SMOOTHING THROUGH SOME RATHER LARGE
WOBBLES. THE DEEP-LAYER RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF FRANK IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN STRONG ENOUGH TO KEEP THE CYCLONE MOVING IN A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP FRANK OFFSHORE AND ON A TRACK PARALLEL
THE MEXICAN COAST. BY DAY 5...A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AND
PERHAPS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WILL BE POSSIBLE AS THE
WESTERN EXTENT OF THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
FORECAST TO DIG SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS JUST AN EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN.
 
THE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ACROSS FRANK IS NOT EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HOURS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE
PERIODIC BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT...THAT
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF STRENGTHENING OF THE CYCLONE...ANY SUSTAINED
INTENSIFICATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL AFTER 48 HOURS WHEN
THE SHEAR IS FORECAST BY ALL THE GLOBAL MODELS TO DECREASE TO LESS
THAN 15 KT. HOWEVER...BY 120 HOURS...FRANK IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
MOVING OVER SUB-26C SSTS...WHICH SHOULD INITIATE A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS A BLEND OF
THE SHIPS/LGEM AND GFDL/HWRF INTENSITY MODELS THROUGH 36 HOURS...
AND THEN HIGHER THAN THE MODELS AFTER THAT DUE AN EXPECTED DECREASE
IN THE SHEAR.
 
NEARBY SHIP REPORTS CONTINUE TO INDICATE FRANK POSSESSES A SMALL
WIND FIELD. THEREFORE...NO CHANGES TO THE EXISTING TROPICAL STORM
WATCH AND WARNING AREAS FOR THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO ARE
REQUIRED AT THIS TIME.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/2100Z 14.9N  99.3W    45 KT
 12HR VT     24/0600Z 15.2N 100.5W    50 KT
 24HR VT     24/1800Z 15.8N 101.9W    50 KT
 36HR VT     25/0600Z 16.5N 103.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     25/1800Z 17.2N 105.1W    60 KT
 72HR VT     26/1800Z 18.3N 107.8W    65 KT
 96HR VT     27/1800Z 19.5N 110.5W    70 KT
120HR VT     28/1800Z 20.5N 113.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER STEWART
 
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