ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082010 800 AM PDT SAT AUG 21 2010 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A SMALL AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE EXPOSED CENTER...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 25 KT IN AGREEMENT WITH THE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM SAB. STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SYSTEM TODAY...AND BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY BY SUNDAY. THE SHEAR AND COOLER WATERS SHOULD RESULT IN A CONTINUED WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM TO A REMNANT LOW LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED IN 36 TO 48 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/8. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST IS EXPECTED IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS. THE TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...BUT IS OTHERWISE SIMILAR. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 20.6N 111.4W 25 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 21.0N 112.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 24HR VT 22/1200Z 21.1N 113.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 23/0000Z 21.0N 114.4W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 23/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 15-Apr-2011 12:09:33 UTC