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Tropical Storm ESTELLE


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TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
2100 UTC FRI AUG 06 2010
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.0W AT 06/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  45SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 105.0W AT 06/2100Z
AT 06/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N 104.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 17.7N 106.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  20SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.2N 107.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 18.6N 109.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 19.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 19.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1800Z 19.5N 112.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 19.5N 113.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 105.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
 
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