ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 17 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010 AN EARLIER CONVECTIVE BURST NEAR THE CENTER OF ESTELLE HAS SUCCUMBED TO STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR...LEAVING THE CENTER EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF WHAT CONVECTION REMAINS. NEVERTHELESS...THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION APPEARS WELL-DEFINED AND FAIRLY VIGOROUS. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS ARE AT 1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND SERVE AS THE BASIS FOR KEEPING THE INITIAL INTENSITY AT 30 KT. THE SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASING TO 30-35 KT WITHIN 24 HOURS...WHICH SEEMS PROHIBITIVELY HIGH FOR THE SURVIVAL OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS ESTELLE BECOMING A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...THOUGH THIS COULD OCCUR SOONER. RECENT CENTER FIXES INDICATE A SLOW WESTERLY MOTION...BUT THE LONGER-TERM MOTION ESTIMATE IS JUST SOUTH OF DUE WEST. ESTELLE OR ITS REMNANT IS EXPECTED TO TURN SOUTH AND THEN EAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT INTERACTS WITH A DISTURBANCE LOCATED TO ITS EAST WITHIN THE LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW PREVAILING SOUTHWEST OF MEXICO. GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREE ON THIS TRACK SCENARIO. HOWEVER MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS DEPICT ESTELLE...OR ITS REMNANT...ABSORBING THE DISTURBANCE TO THE EAST WITHIN A COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREAFTER...THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT ESTELLE COULD REGENERATE IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOMEWHAT REDUCED VERTICAL WIND SHEAR LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS IS A POSSIBILITY THAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT AT THIS JUNCTURE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/0300Z 17.6N 113.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/1200Z 17.6N 113.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 11/0000Z 17.3N 113.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 11/1200Z 16.9N 113.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 12/0000Z 16.5N 112.7W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 13/0000Z 16.0N 111.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 14/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer | Privacy Policy | Credits | About Us | Glossary | Career Opportunities