ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 PM PDT MON AUG 09 2010 SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF ESTELLE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...MOST OF THE CIRCULATION REMAINS EXPOSED. A LARGER AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS ACTUALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A DIFFERENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. A BLEND OF THE T- AND CI-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT...MAKING ESTELLE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A SLOW SPIN DOWN OF THE CIRCULATION IS LIKELY...GIVEN FORECAST SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR OF 25-30 KT FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. REMNANT LOW STATUS IS PROBABLE BY 24 HOURS...OR SOONER. ESTELLE CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. A TURN TOWARD THE SOUTH AND EAST IS EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM ROTATES AROUND THE LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION SOUTH OF MEXICO. RELIABLE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED EAST OF THE PREVIOUS ONE. THE ONLY POTENTIAL FLY IN THE OINTMENT IS THE SLIGHT POSSIBILITY OF REGENERATION OF ESTELLE AFTER IT MOVES FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST INTO A WARMER WATER AND LIGHTER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT IN A FEW DAYS. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS MORE LIKELY THAT ESTELLE WILL BECOME PART OF THE LOW TO THE EAST OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RATHER THAN THE DOMINANT SYSTEM AS SEEN IN SOME OF THE GLOBAL MODELS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 17.7N 112.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.6N 112.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.4N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 11/0600Z 17.0N 113.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 11/1800Z 16.7N 112.9W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 12/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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