ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 15 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010 THUNDERSTORMS HAVE WEAKENED AND MOVED WESTWARD AWAY FROM THE CENTER AS SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR CONTINUES TO AFFECT ESTELLE. THE MORNING VISIBLE IMAGES SHOW A RATHER WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION MOSTLY SURROUNDED BY STABLE LOW-LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS. SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS ARE DECREASING...AND THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 35 KT. SHEAR IS FORECAST TO INCREASE EVEN MORE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH SHOULD WEAKEN THIS SYSTEM INTO A DEPRESSION SOON AND A REMNANT LOW IN A DAY OR SO. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO SHIPS MODEL AND THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ESTELLE HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY SOUTH OF DUE WEST AT ABOUT 3 KT. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...OR ITS REMNANTS...SHOULD SLOWLY TURN TOWARD THE SOUTHWEST...SOUTH...AND EAST AS IT BECOMES ENTRAINED INTO STRONG LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS THEN MERGE THE SYSTEM INTO A LARGER ITCZ LOW WITHIN A FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS A BIT SLOWER THAN THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/1500Z 17.7N 112.3W 35 KT 12HR VT 10/0000Z 17.6N 112.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1200Z 17.5N 113.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 36HR VT 11/0000Z 17.4N 113.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 11/1200Z 17.1N 113.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 12/1200Z 16.5N 113.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 13/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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