ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 14 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 AM PDT MON AUG 09 2010 ANOTHER STRONG BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH CLOUD TOPS OF -75C TO -85C HAS DEVELOPED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION. A BLEND OF SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 06Z SUPPORTS AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT USING A SHEAR PATTERN...AND THE LATEST UW-CIMSS ADT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 41 KT. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. ESTELLE HAS BEEN WOBBLING BETWEEN A WEST AND WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS...BUT THE BEST MOTION ESTIMATE FOR THIS ADVISORY IS 270/4. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO THE SOUTHWESTWARD AND THEN SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS AS THE LOW-LEVEL AND UPPER-LEVEL CIRCULATIONS DECOUPLE DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS THEN FORECAST BY MOST OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS TO BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC MONSOON TROUGH AND POSSIBLY BE ABSORBED INTO ANOTHER DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS NEAR THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES A SMALL REGION OF DRY STABLE AIR HAS BEEN TRAVERSING THE CYCLONE...WHICH HAS LIKELY RESULTED IN THE EARLIER EROSION OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION. HOWEVER...TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE IS AN APPARENT REGION OF INSTABILITY THAT CONTAINS DEEP CONVECTION. AS THAT NARROW UNSTABLE REGION MOVES ACROSS ESTELLE... NEW CONVECTION SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...HELPING THE CYCLONE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT INTENSITY FOR ANOTHER 6 TO PERHAPS 12 HOURS. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE FORECASTING THE VERTICAL SHEAR TO INCREASE TO ABOVE 20 KT...WHICH SHOULD INDUCE STEADY WEAKENING. THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS DISSIPATE ESTELLE BY 72 HOURS...WHEREAS THE GFDL...HWRF...AND MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS MAINTAIN ESTELLE AS A WEAK CYCLONE THROUGH AT LEAST 96 HOURS. THE LATTER SCENARIO WAS USED FOR THIS ADVISORY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/0900Z 17.7N 112.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 09/1800Z 17.6N 112.8W 35 KT 24HR VT 10/0600Z 17.5N 113.6W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/1800Z 17.4N 114.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 11/0600Z 17.2N 114.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 12/0600Z 16.7N 113.6W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 13/0600Z 16.2N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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