ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 PM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION OF ESTELLE HAS BECOME DETACHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF ITS DECAYING MID-LEVEL CENTER. CONVECTION HAS ALSO BEEN DECREASING AND IS ONLY PRESENT IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE INITIAL WINDS ARE LOWERED TO 40 KT... CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO A CONTINUATION OF SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND ESTELLE MOVING INTO A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THUS...THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS DECREASED AND REMNANT LOW STATUS IS LIKELY BY 36 HOURS...IF NOT SOONER. A 12-HR MOTION IS ABOUT 275/4. THIS SLOW WESTWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST IS LIKELY UNTIL ESTELLE BECOMES A REMNANT LOW. THEREAFTER THE RELIABLE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW THE REMNANT LOW MOVING SOUTHWARD...AND THEN EASTWARD AS IT GETS DRAWN INTO A LARGER ITCZ CIRCULATION TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND TO THE DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/2100Z 17.9N 111.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 09/0600Z 18.0N 111.9W 35 KT 24HR VT 09/1800Z 17.9N 113.0W 30 KT 36HR VT 10/0600Z 17.8N 113.9W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 10/1800Z 17.6N 114.2W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 11/1800Z 17.2N 114.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 12/1800Z 16.7N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 13/1800Z 16.5N 113.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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