ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 800 AM PDT SUN AUG 08 2010 THERE CONTINUES TO BE A LOT OF CONVECTION NEAR THE APPARENT CENTER OF ESTELLE. HOWEVER...THE THUNDERSTORMS DO NOT HAVE A LOT OF SHAPE...AND RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGES SUGGEST LESS ORGANIZATION OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED SLIGHTLY TO 50 KT...CONSISTENT WITH A BLEND OF THE T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB. ESTELLE HAS CROSSED THE 26.5C ISOTHERM AND HAS PROBABLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY. DECREASING SSTS...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT...AND INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR SHOULD PROMOTE A SLOW WEAKENING OF ESTELLE. THE NHC FORECAST IS LOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT CLOSE TO THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF INITIAL MOTION IS 280/7. A CONTINUED WESTWARD TRACK WITH A DECREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS LIKELY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS DUE TO A WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF ESTELLE. AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS...IT IS LIKELY TO GET CAUGHT UP IN SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SOUTH OF MEXICO AND TURN TOWARD THE EAST AS A REMNANT LOW. THE RELIABLE LARGE-SCALE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 08/1500Z 18.0N 111.0W 50 KT 12HR VT 09/0000Z 18.1N 112.0W 45 KT 24HR VT 09/1200Z 18.1N 113.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 10/0000Z 18.1N 114.0W 35 KT 48HR VT 10/1200Z 18.0N 114.7W 30 KT 72HR VT 11/1200Z 17.6N 115.1W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96HR VT 12/1200Z 17.0N 115.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 13/1200Z 16.5N 114.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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