ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM ESTELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072010 200 AM PDT SAT AUG 07 2010 THE STRUCTURE OF ESTELLE HAS CHANGED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS AS A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST...WITH TOPS AS COLD AS -80C...HAS DEVELOPED ALONG WITH A FEW CURVED BANDS MAINLY TO THE NORTH OF THE CENTER. DVORAK CI-NUMBERS REMAIN 45 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT THAT VALUE. A 0344 UTC TRMM PASS AND A 0416 UTC AMSU PASS INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF ESTELLE REFORMED ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED LOCATION. THIS REFORMATION CREATES A HIGHLY UNCERTAIN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 270/9. ESTELLE IS EXPECTED TO RESUME A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION LATER TODAY AS THE CYCLONE IS STEERED BY A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTHEAST. A SIGNIFICANT DECELERATION IS FORECAST IN A COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE CYCLONE APPROACHES A BREAK IN THE RIDGE AND BECOMES A SHALLOWER SYSTEM. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ADJUSTED SOUTHWARD TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL LOCATION AND IS CLOSEST TO THE TVCN TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS ESTELLE REMAINS IN A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT AND OVER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE HIGH END OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH 36 HOURS AND SHOWS A PEAK AT 60 KT. BY 48 HOURS...THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF ABOUT 26C...AND STEADY WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN AT THAT TIME. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 07/0900Z 16.8N 106.7W 45 KT 12HR VT 07/1800Z 17.2N 108.0W 55 KT 24HR VT 08/0600Z 17.6N 109.4W 60 KT 36HR VT 08/1800Z 18.0N 110.5W 60 KT 48HR VT 09/0600Z 18.3N 111.4W 55 KT 72HR VT 10/0600Z 18.5N 112.5W 40 KT 96HR VT 11/0600Z 18.5N 113.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 12/0600Z 18.5N 114.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI NNNN
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