Tropical Depression SEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072010
800 AM PDT FRI AUG 06 2010
 
THERE HAS BEEN INCREASING CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE PAST
FEW HOURS WITH MORE PROMINENT BANDING FEATURES ON THE SOUTH AND
EAST SIDE OF THE DEPRESSION.  WITHOUT ANY RECENT MICROWAVE DATA TO
CONFIRM THE INITIAL POSITION...THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL REMAIN AT
30 KT...A BLEND OF THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB/SAB.  HOWEVER
THIS SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE A TROPICAL STORM...ESPECIALLY IF THE
CENTER IS FARTHER NORTH.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SHOULD HAVE A GOOD
ENVIRONMENT FOR STRENGTHENING OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH LOW
SHEAR AND WARM WATER LIKELY.  IT IS A LITTLE PUZZLING WHY THE
INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE STRENGTHENING GIVEN THE FORECAST
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS.  AT THIS TIME...I DO NOT SEE A REASON TO
CHANGE THE PREVIOUS FORECAST MUCH...AND THE NHC FORECAST REMAINS
CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...HIGHER THAN MOST OF THE GUIDANCE.  
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS THE SAME AS PREVIOUS...290/9...
ALTHOUGH THIS IS PRETTY UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE LACK OF MICROWAVE
IMAGERY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. WEAK RIDGING OVER MEXICO
SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER THE DEPRESSION TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON
WHETHER THE CYCLONE WOULD TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO A BREAK
IN THE RIDGE...OR CONTINUE A MORE WESTWARD TRACK AT THAT TIME.
GENERALLY THE GLOBAL MODELS FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERN TRACK...WHILE THE
HWRF/GFDL AND THE BAMS GUIDANCE ARE ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE NHC FORECAST WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE
CONSENSUS AT THIS TIME...WHICH IS FARTHER SOUTH AND SLOWER THAN 6
HOURS AGO. THIS REMAINS A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST DUE TO THE LARGE
SPREAD IN THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE.
  
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 16.6N 104.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 17.1N 105.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 17.8N 107.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 18.3N 108.5W    55 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 18.8N 109.8W    50 KT
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 19.5N 111.5W    40 KT
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 20.0N 113.0W    30 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 20.0N 114.5W    25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE
 
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