ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010 800 AM PDT THU JUL 15 2010 INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION...WITH TOPS OCCASIONALLY TO 80C...CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR THE TIGHT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION AS REVEALED BY A 0841Z AMSR OVERPASS. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE A CONSENSUS T1.5/25 KT. AN UW-CIMSS ADT ESTIMATES HAVE AVERAGED T2.1/31 KT OVER THE PAST 3 HOURS...WHILE A 0944Z AMSU ANALYSIS FROM CIRA YIELDED A PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 1001 MB AND 34 KT. A BLEND OF THESE DATA GIVES AN AVERAGE INTENSITY OF 30 KT...AND THAT VALUE IS USED FOR THE ADVISORY INTENSITY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/05...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND MUCH SLOWER THAN THE MODEL GUIDANCE. OVERALL...THERE REMAINS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST REASONING. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED OVER THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY BUILD WESTWARD INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC DURING THE PERIOD. THE DEEP EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE DEPRESSION MOVING IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE NEXT 2 DAYS...WITH A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST EXPECTED AFTER THAT WHEN THE CYCLONE WEAKENS OVER COOLER WATER AND IS STEERED MORE BY THE LOW-LEVEL EASTERLIES. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND REMAINS NEAR THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND IS ALSO A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND SOUTH OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN. OCCASIONAL BURSTS OF DEEP CONVECTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...AND COULD RESULT IN THE DEPRESSION BRIEFLY PRODUCING TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS. HOWEVER...STRONG EAST-NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THAT PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD PREVENT ANY PERSISTENT INNER-CORE CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING. BY 36-48 HOURS...THE SHEAR IF EXPECTED TO DROP SHARPLY FROM THE CURRENT 25-30 KT TO LESS THAN 15 KT...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORE ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP NEAR THE WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. HOWEVER...AFTER 48 HOURS THE CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER SSTS COLDER THAN 26C...WHICH SHOULD HALT ANY INTENSIFICATION. NEITHER THE SHIPS OR LGEM INTENSITY MODELS MAKE THE SYSTEM A TROPICAL STORM...BUT THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS DO BRING THE DEPRESSION UP TO 40-45 KT IN 24-36 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THESE TWO EXTREMES. REPORTS FROM THE NOAA SHIP KA-IMIMOANA...CALL SIGN NWS0009...LOCATED TO THE WEST OF THE DEPRESSION...HAVE BEEN HELPFUL IN THE ASSESSMENT OF THE CENTRAL PRESSURE AND WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/1500Z 15.3N 108.5W 30 KT 12HR VT 16/0000Z 15.7N 109.6W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/1200Z 16.4N 111.4W 30 KT 36HR VT 17/0000Z 17.0N 113.2W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/1200Z 17.4N 115.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 18/1200Z 17.7N 119.0W 30 KT...DISSIPATING 96HR VT 19/1200Z 17.7N 122.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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