ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010 800 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE CIRCULATION BUT REMAINS STRONGLY SHEARED. THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED WELL TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION...WHICH IN FACT...HAS WEAKENED DURING THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS HELD AT 30 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY...IN AGREEMENT WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND CONTINUITY. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR REMAINING QUITE STRONG FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT INTENSIFICATION. THEREAFTER...THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE 10 KT OR LESS. HOWEVER...BY THE TIME THE SHEAR ABATES...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOL WATERS. THEREFORE...ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS UNANIMOUSLY SUGGESTED BY THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR 290 DEGREES AT 10 KT. A MID-LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES IS ANTICIPATED TO BUILD WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. THIS FLOW PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE...FOLLOWED BY A MORE WESTWARD MOTION AS THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOMES STEERED MAINLY BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE TRACK MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0300Z 15.2N 107.7W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/1200Z 15.6N 109.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 16/0000Z 16.2N 110.7W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/1200Z 16.7N 112.5W 35 KT 48HR VT 17/0000Z 17.1N 114.5W 40 KT 72HR VT 18/0000Z 17.5N 118.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 19/0000Z 18.0N 122.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 20/0000Z 18.5N 126.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/AVILA NNNN
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