ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062010 200 PM PDT WED JUL 14 2010 SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW PRESSURE AREA THAT HAS BEEN MOVING PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN COAST FOR THE PAST 4 DAYS HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED AND HAS DEVELOPED ENOUGH CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION TO BE CLASSIFIED AS TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT IS BASED SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25 KT AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE 285/11. ALL OF THE GLOBAL AND REGIONAL MODELS GRADUALLY BUILD A RIDGE FROM THE U.S. SOUTHERN PLAINS WESTWARD TO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND NORTHERN MEXICO BY DAY 3...AND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC BY DAY 5. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MOVING IN A STEADY WEST TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION FOR THE PAST 3 DAYS AND THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE THAT WOULD ALTER THAT GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS NEAR THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE SPEED OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS....TVCN. THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXPERIENCING 25-30 KT OF EASTERLY SHEAR FOR THE PAST 2 DAYS...AND THIS CONDITION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. ALTHOUGH THE INNER-CORE CONVECTION HAS ERODED SOMEWHAT DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF HOURS...THERE WILL LIKELY BE ANOTHER BURST OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LATER TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...PERSISTENT CONVECTION WILL LIKELY NOT BE SUSTAINED UNTIL THE SHEAR DECREASES SIGNIFICANTLY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. BUT BY THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATER...WHICH SHOULD ACT TO KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A TROPICAL STORM. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM INTENSITY MODELS. DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION AND FORECAST MOTION...THE DEPRESSION SHOULD REMAIN AWAY FROM MEXICO. THEREFORE...NO WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 14.9N 107.2W 30 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 15.3N 108.8W 30 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 15.8N 110.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 16.2N 112.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 16.6N 114.1W 40 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 17.2N 118.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 17.6N 122.0W 30 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 126.0W 25 KT...DISSIPATING $$ FORECASTER STEWART NNNN
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