ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 22 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 200 AM PDT MON JUN 28 2010 TROPICAL STORM DARBY IS FEELING THE EFFECTS OF STRONG EASTERLY VERTICAL SHEAR. SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGERY CLEARLY SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED ABOUT 45 NM NORTHEAST OF THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 35 AND 45 KT RESPECTIVELY AT 06 UTC. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ANALYZED TO BE 35 KT BASED ON THE CONTINUED DETERIORATION IN THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE SINCE THE SYNOPTIC TIME. THE CYCLONES INITIAL MOTION IS 060/5. THE SYSTEM IS PRIMARILY BEING STEERED BY THE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW SOUTH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT TWO DAYS WHILE DARBY WEAKENS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS BASED ON THE MODEL CONSENSUS. WHILE DARBY REMAINS OVER VERY WARM SSTS AND IS EMBEDDED IN VERY MOIST AIR...THE EFFECTS OF STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THE WEAKENING TREND DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS. ALL GLOBAL MODELS SHOW STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR OF 20 TO 30 KT DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES OVERLYING LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY MONSOONAL FLOW. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE LGEM...DECAY SHIPS...AND HWRF MODELS AND IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. DARBY IS LIKELY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW BEFORE REACHING SOUTHERN MEXICO IN ABOUT TWO DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.2N 101.4W 35 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 100.4W 30 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 15.0N 98.9W 25 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 15.4N 97.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 30/0600Z 15.7N 96.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART NNNN
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