ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 800 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010 DARBY REMAINS IN AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...AND THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF A MASS OF DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. USING AN AVERAGE OF DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB LEADS TO A WIND SPEED ESTIMATE OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. GLOBAL MODEL FORECASTS INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR AFFECTING DARBY WILL BECOME EVEN STRONGER...IN EXCESS OF 30 KT...OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND IS ALSO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. EVEN THOUGH DARBY WILL REMAIN OVER WARM WATERS...IT IS LIKELY TO BECOME QUITE WEAK AND DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY THE TIME IT NEARS THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION IS AROUND 070/3. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM FOR THIS STORM REMAINS A BROAD AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY LOW- TO MID-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF THE LARGE GYRE ASSOCIATED WITH ATLANTIC BASIN TROPICAL CYCLONE ALEX. THE CONSENSUS OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE CALLS FOR THE WEAKENING DARBY TO CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THIS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0300Z 13.9N 102.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/1200Z 14.2N 101.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 29/0000Z 14.5N 100.5W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/1200Z 14.9N 99.3W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 30/0000Z 15.3N 98.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 01/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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