ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 200 PM PDT SUN JUN 27 2010 THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF DARBY IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...CONSISTENT WITH THE 15 KT OR SO OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYZED OVER DARBY BY THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 40 KT BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB AT 1800 UTC...AND DATA FROM A 1556 UTC ASCAT PASS. THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR INCREASING TO 25 OR 30 KT OVER THE CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...AND THIS SHOULD LEAD TO CONTINUED WEAKENING. DARBY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...WITH DISSIPATION IN ABOUT THREE DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE SHIPS AND LGEM. WHATEVER REMAINS OF DARBY IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SHOULD BE QUITE WEAK AS IT APPROACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF MEXICO. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW EASTWARD...090 DEGREES...AT 4 KNOTS. THE DOMINANT STEERING MECHANISM APPEARS TO BE A LARGE AREA OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND SOUTHWEST OF ATLANTIC TROPICAL DEPRESSION ALEX. THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NEW NHC FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS...AND IS ADJUSTED TO THE RIGHT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/2100Z 13.7N 102.2W 40 KT 12HR VT 28/0600Z 13.8N 101.7W 35 KT 24HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 100.8W 30 KT 36HR VT 29/0600Z 14.6N 99.6W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48HR VT 29/1800Z 14.9N 98.3W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72HR VT 30/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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