Hurricane DARBY

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HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052010
800 AM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
COMPACT DARBY HAD CHANGED LITTLE THIS MORNING.  ALTHOUGH THE PINHOLE
EYE HAS BECOME OBSCURED IN THE ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY...AN 0811
UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATED THAT THE EYE WAS STILL QUITE
INTACT NEAR THE SURFACE.  ADDITIONALLY...A STRONG BANDING FEATURE
WAS EVIDENT OVER THE WEST AND NORTH PORTIONS OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND AN ADVANCED OBJECTIVE DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ESTIMATE SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE ESTIMATE AT 95 KT FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  EASTERLY SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER
DARBY THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...CAUSING THE CYCLONE TO WEAKEN. 
THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE SHIPS
MODEL AND THE LGEM...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 260/3...WITHIN THE EASTERLY MID
TO UPPER TROPOSPHERIC STEERING FLOW OF A WEAKENING RIDGE TO THE
NORTH OF DARBY.  DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE AFOREMENTIONED
RIDGE WILL WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...CAUSING THE CYCLONE
TO DRIFT OR BECOME STATIONARY.  BEYOND THE 36 HOUR PERIOD...AN
INCREASING WEAKNESS...POSSIBLY INFLUENCED BY TROPICAL STORM
ALEX...SHOULD INDUCE A GRADUAL NORTHEASTWARD MOTION.  THIS EVENTUAL
TURN TOWARD THE NORTHEAST COULD COME MUCH LATER THAN
SUGGESTED...INDICATIVE OF A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS DURING THIS
PARTICULAR PERIOD OF THE FORECAST.  CONSEQUENTLY...THERE IS LOW
CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK AFTER THE 48 HOUR PERIOD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND A LITTLE WEST
OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.
 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 13.4N 102.9W    95 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 13.3N 103.5W    90 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 13.3N 104.0W    80 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 13.5N 104.1W    70 KT
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 14.0N 103.7W    65 KT
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 14.3N 103.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 14.7N 102.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     01/1200Z 15.0N 102.3W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS
 
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