ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 11 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 800 AM PDT FRI JUN 25 2010 DARBY IS A SMALL BUT INTENSE HURRICANE. SATELLITE IMAGES AND MICROWAVE DATA REVEAL AN EYE SURROUNDED BY A RING OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION. T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE INCREASED TO 5.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 100 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE HAS AN OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN A LITTLE MORE BEFORE THE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT BECOMES UNFAVORABLE IN A DAY OR TWO. THEREFORE...A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS INDICATED. DARBY HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. HOWEVER...AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH WEAKENS AND THE STEERING CURRENTS COLLAPSE...THE HURRICANE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK OF DARBY...BUT MOST OF THEM WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS IT BECOMES EMBEDDED WITHIN A LOW-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 25/1500Z 13.6N 101.2W 100 KT 12HR VT 26/0000Z 13.9N 102.0W 105 KT 24HR VT 26/1200Z 13.9N 103.2W 100 KT 36HR VT 27/0000Z 13.5N 103.5W 90 KT 48HR VT 27/1200Z 13.5N 104.0W 80 KT 72HR VT 28/1200Z 13.8N 104.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 29/1200Z 14.0N 103.3W 60 KT 120HR VT 30/1200Z 14.5N 102.5W 50 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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