ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DARBY DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 200 PM PDT THU JUN 24 2010 DARBY CONTINUES TO EXHIBIT A SMALL SYMMETRIC CDO WITH SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND THERE ARE HINTS OF AN EYE IN THE VISIBLE IMAGES. CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 70 KT BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 77 KT AND 65 KT FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY. ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST SINCE THE HURRICANE SHOULD REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATER ON...STRONG EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHEAST OF DARBY WILL PROBABLY INDUCE SOME WEAKENING...ALTHOUGH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL REMAIN OVER RATHER WARM WATERS. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE LGEM GUIDANCE RATHER CLOSELY. THE FORWARD SPEED CONTINUES TO SLOW GRADUALLY AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW ABOUT 285/7. SINCE THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE AREA TO THE NORTH OF DARBY IS PREDICTED BY THE GLOBAL MODELS TO WEAKEN...STEERING CURRENTS ARE LIKELY TO COLLAPSE IN A FEW DAYS AND THE FORWARD MOTION OF THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECELERATE. ALMOST ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE NOW REJECTS THE POSSIBILITY THAT DARBY WILL INTERACT WITH THE DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY OVER THE CARIBBEAN. THEREFORE IT IS PROBABLE THAT THE SYSTEM WILL SIMPLY MEANDER IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO A HALT BY DAY 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 24/2100Z 12.9N 99.3W 70 KT 12HR VT 25/0600Z 13.1N 100.4W 70 KT 24HR VT 25/1800Z 13.4N 101.6W 75 KT 36HR VT 26/0600Z 13.5N 102.5W 80 KT 48HR VT 26/1800Z 13.5N 103.2W 80 KT 72HR VT 27/1800Z 14.0N 104.0W 70 KT 96HR VT 28/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W 65 KT 120HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 103.5W 55 KT $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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