ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052010 800 PM PDT TUE JUN 22 2010 THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONSOLIDATED DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS AND THE CLOUD PATTERN NOW CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ON THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE CIRCULATION AND A FEW PATCHES OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB INCREASED TO 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE SUPPORTING TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS AT THIS TIME. THE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS DUE TO SHEAR. IN FACT...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS WEAKEN THE CYCLONE AS A LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWEST FLOW BECOMES PREDOMINANT IN THE AREA SOUTH OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ONLY CALLS FOR A MODEST STRENGTHENING AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 295 DEGREES AT 8 KNOTS. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WHILE THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE EASTERLY FLOW SOUTH OF A WEAK TO MODERATE RIDGE. THEREAFTER...STEERING CURRENTS ARE FORECAST TO COLLAPSE AND THE CYCLONE SHOULD BEGIN TO MEANDER. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS AS WELL AS THE GFDL/HWRF MODEL PAIR WHICH KEEP THE CYCLONE LOOPING WELL OFFSHORE SOUTH OF MEXICO BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 23/0300Z 11.0N 93.4W 30 KT 12HR VT 23/1200Z 11.5N 94.5W 35 KT 24HR VT 24/0000Z 12.0N 96.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 24/1200Z 12.8N 97.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 25/0000Z 13.5N 99.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 26/0000Z 14.0N 101.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 27/0000Z 15.0N 102.0W 45 KT 120HR VT 28/0000Z 15.5N 102.5W 40 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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