Tropical Storm CELIA

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TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  32
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT SAT JUN 26 2010
 
CELIA CONTINUES TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY...WITH THE REMAINING DEEP
CONVECTION LOCATED NORTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  DVORAK INTENSITY
ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO DECREASE...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET
AT 55 KT IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE ADT CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF 53 KT AND A DATA-T NUMBER 3.5/55 KT FROM TAFB.  ADDITIONAL RAPID
WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS CELIA TRAVERSES WATERS OF AROUND 25C...AND
THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND DISSIPATE
IN 3 OR 4 DAYS. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/6. CELIA IS BEING STEERED BY A 
RIDGE SITUATED NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...AND A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED UNTIL THE CYCLONE DISSIPATES.  AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS IN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...THE FORWARD MOTION OF CELIA WILL SLOW TO
A CRAWL...AROUND 2 OR 3 KT UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NEW OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. 

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      27/0300Z 15.8N 122.7W    55 KT
 12HR VT     27/1200Z 15.9N 123.5W    40 KT
 24HR VT     28/0000Z 16.0N 124.2W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/1200Z 16.0N 124.8W    25 KT
 48HR VT     29/0000Z 16.0N 125.2W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72HR VT     30/0000Z 16.0N 126.5W    20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96HR VT     01/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
 
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