Hurricane CELIA

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 AM PDT THU JUN 24 2010

THE EYE OF CELIA HAS ONCE AGAIN BECOME VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
BEGINNING AROUND 1200 UTC. IN ADDITION...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS
BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SYMMETRIC OVERNIGHT...WITH CLOUD TOPS
COLDER THAN -80 C IN THE EYEWALL. DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND
SAB ARE 4.5/77 KT AND 5.5/102 KT. BASED ON THE SAB CLASSIFICATION
AND THE CONTINUED INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN
SINCE 1200 UTC...CELIA IS ONCE AGAIN UPGRADED TO MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS...WITH THE INITIAL INTENSITY SET AT 100 KT...AND THIS COULD
BE CONSERVATIVE.

NONE OF THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY STRENGTHENING OF
CELIA...AND THIS APPEARS SOMEWHAT UNREALISTIC GIVEN THE VERY
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WIND PATTERN AND RELATIVELY WARM WATERS THAT
CELIA IS OVER AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...ANY INTENSIFICATION SHOULD
BE IN THE SHORT TERM AS SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES DECREASE TO NEAR
26-27 C ALONG THE FOR CAST TRACK IN ABOUT 24 HOURS AND THEN
STEADILY COOL BEYOND THAT. IN ADDITION...THE ATMOSPHERIC
ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE ALONG THE
EXPECTED TRACK. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NUDGED
UPWARD AND IS ABOVE ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IN THE NEXT 12-24
HOURS...ALLOWING FOR SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING.
THEREAFTER...THE LESS FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD
CAUSE WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REMAINS NEAR THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM MODEL.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11...AND THE EYE OF CELIA LIES A
LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK. OVERALL...THERE
REMAINS LITTLE CHANGE TO THE TRACK FORECAST FORECAST REASONING.
CELIA IS EXPECTED TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS
AS A LARGE-SCALE MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OFFSHORE OF THE UNITED
STATES WEST COAST ERODES THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE.  THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING IN ITS WAKE. THIS PATTERN...
COMBINED WITH CELIA BECOMING A SHALLOWER SYSTEM BY THEN...SHOULD
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN BACK TOWARD THE WEST LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE NEW NHC OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE IN THE SHORT-TERM TO ACCOUNT FOR THE INITIAL
MOTION...AND IS OTHERWISE AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      24/1500Z 12.5N 113.9W   100 KT
 12HR VT     25/0000Z 12.9N 115.7W   110 KT
 24HR VT     25/1200Z 13.6N 117.9W   105 KT
 36HR VT     26/0000Z 14.4N 119.8W    95 KT
 48HR VT     26/1200Z 15.2N 121.4W    85 KT
 72HR VT     27/1200Z 16.0N 124.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     28/1200Z 16.5N 125.5W    50 KT
120HR VT     29/1200Z 16.5N 126.5W    35 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/PASCH
 
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