| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane CELIA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  17
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT WED JUN 23 2010
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE SINCE THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  MICROWAVE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6-9 HOURS
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A TILTED SYSTEM WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER
DISPLACED TO THE EAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER.  THE MICROWAVE
IMAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME OPEN OVER THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT.  BASED ON THESE TRENDS AND SLIGHTLY LOWER DVORAK CURRENT
INTENSITY NUMBERS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 75 KT. 

AS HAS BEEN THE CASE OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS...THE GLOBAL
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLIES SHOULD RELAX DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. IN TURN...THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
SHEAR SHOULD DECREASE TO LESS THAN 10 KT LATER TODAY...AND REMAIN
VERY LOW THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...AS
CELIA REMAINS OVER WARM SSTS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...I
WILL ONCE AGAIN FORECAST STRENGTHENING. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE GFDL MODEL...BUT IS A
LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS/LGEM GUIDANCE. IN ABOUT 3 DAYS...THE
HURRICANE IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WEAKENING AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS.

CELIA CONTINUES MOVING WESTWARD TO THE SOUTH A STRONG MID-LEVEL
RIDGE.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN IN A DAY OR SO...AND CELIA
SHOULD TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AS THAT OCCURS.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT...EXCEPT FOR THE ECMWF WHICH
WEAKENS THE RIDGE MORE THAN THE OTHER GLOBAL MODELS.  THAT RESULTS
IN MORE DECELERATION OF THE FORWARD SPEED OF THE HURRICANE THAN
PREDICTED BY THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE.  THE NHC FORECAST 
TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 72 HOURS...BUT 
HAS BEEN ADJUSTED A LITTLE WESTWARD THEREAFTER.  THE NEW TRACK IS
A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE CONSENSUS AT DAYS 4 AND 5 GIVING SOME
CREDENCE TO THE SLOWER ECMWF SOLUTION.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      23/0900Z 11.9N 108.0W    75 KT
 12HR VT     23/1800Z 12.0N 109.8W    80 KT
 24HR VT     24/0600Z 12.3N 112.2W    85 KT
 36HR VT     24/1800Z 12.9N 114.5W    90 KT
 48HR VT     25/0600Z 13.6N 116.8W    90 KT
 72HR VT     26/0600Z 14.9N 120.8W    70 KT
 96HR VT     27/0600Z 15.8N 124.0W    55 KT
120HR VT     28/0600Z 16.0N 126.0W    40 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
NNNN