Hurricane CELIA

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HURRICANE CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
800 PM PDT MON JUN 21 2010
 
BD-CURVE ENHANCEMENT IMAGES AND AN EARLIER AMSR-E AQUA-1 MICROWAVE
OVERPASS INDICATE THAT CELIA HAS STRENGTHENED THIS EVENING. INFRARED
IMAGERY REVEALS NEW DEEP CONVECTION FORMING JUST TO THE EAST AND
NORTHEAST OF THE EYE...WHICH APPEARS TO INDICATE THAT THE
PERSISTENT EAST TO NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR IS FINALLY BACKING OFF.  THE
MICROWAVE IMAGES ALSO DEPICTED A WELL DEVELOPED PRIMARY
BAND RESIDING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM...WHICH IS
FURTHER EVIDENCE THAT THE EYEWALL IS IN FACT REFORMING.
SUBSEQUENT SATELLITE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE INCREASED AS
WELL...SUPPORTING AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KT. THE LARGE-SCALE
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR WILL FURTHER DECREASE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...ALLOWING FOR FURTHER INTENSIFICATION.  THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR STRENGTHENING TO A MAJOR
HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS...SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM GUIDANCE. 
AFTERWARD...LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS EXPECTED BEFORE A
WEAKENING TREND COMMENCES BY DAY 3...AS CELIA TRAVERSES OVER COOLER
WATERS AND MOVES WITHIN A LESS THAN FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 275 DEGREES AT 7 KT.  A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD OVER THE TROPICAL EASTERN
PACIFIC OCEAN FROM NORTHERN MEXICO SHOULD STEER CELIA IN A
GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  THROUGH THE
REMAINING FORECAST PERIOD...THE STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS
UNANIMOUSLY AGREE ON A GRADUAL WEAKENING IN THE WESTERN EXTENSION
OF THE RIDGE ALLOWING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO TURN
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED ON A BLEND OF THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS AND LIES JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      22/0300Z 11.7N 103.9W    90 KT
 12HR VT     22/1200Z 11.8N 105.1W    95 KT
 24HR VT     23/0000Z 11.9N 106.6W   100 KT
 36HR VT     23/1200Z 12.0N 108.5W   105 KT
 48HR VT     24/0000Z 12.3N 110.6W   100 KT
 72HR VT     25/0000Z 13.3N 114.5W    95 KT
 96HR VT     26/0000Z 14.9N 118.5W    85 KT
120HR VT     27/0000Z 16.7N 122.0W    65 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/STEWART
 
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