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Tropical Storm CELIA (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CELIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   5...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042010
200 AM PDT SUN JUN 20 2010
 
CORRECT INITIAL INTENSITY FROM 60 KT TO 55 KT

ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CELIA HAS CHANGED LITTLE
IN ORGANIZATION DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
CONVECTIVE MASS HAS CONSOLIDATED FURTHER...CLOUD TOP TEMPERATURES
HAVE NOT COOLED. UPPER-LEVEL APPEARS WELL-ESTABLISHED OVER THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE BUT IS RESTRICTED TO THE EAST. WITH NO 
IMPROVEMENT NOTED IN THE SATELLITE SIGNATURE AND A TAFB DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 3.5/55 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
UNCHANGED AT 55 KT.
 
CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE FIXES INDICATE THAT CELIA MAY HAVE BEGUN
MOVING ON A SLIGHTLY MORE WESTERLY COURSE...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION
ESTIMATE OF 265/8. HOWEVER...WITH NO RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES OVER
CELIA THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS UNCERTAIN. DYNAMICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE NORTH OF
CELIA SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE ON A WESTWARD COURSE THROUGH ABOUT 72
HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE AMPLIFICATION OF A LONGWAVE TROUGH ALONG
THE UNITED STATES WEST COAST SHOULD RESULT IN AN EROSION OF THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE AND CELIA SHOULD
RESPOND BY MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD BEYOND 96 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS CLOSE TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THOUGH A
BIT FASTER AFTER 72 HOURS IN AGREEMENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN
CONSENSUS.
 
THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION THAT TOOK PLACE EARLIER HAS SLOWED...
POSSIBLY AS A RESULT OF MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR DIAGNOSED IN THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS ANALYSES.  THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ENOUGH...HOWEVER...TO
PREVENT FURTHER GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION THROUGH THE NEXT 24-48
HOURS...ESPECIALLY IN THE FACE OF OTHER FAVORABLE FACTORS. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS THE SHEAR DECREASING AFTER ABOUT 24-36 HOURS...AND THE
SHIPS MODEL RESPONDS BY MAKING CELIA A MAJOR HURRICANE AT 60
HOURS...EARLIER THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  HOWEVER...THE GFDL...HWRF...AND
GFDN CALL FOR NO APPRECIABLE INTENSIFICATION...WITH ONLY THE GFDL
FORECASTING IT TO BE A HURRICANE AT 120 HOURS.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST MAINTAINS THE REASONING OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...
INDICATING A HIGHER INTENSITY IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE
SHIPS MODEL.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT...IF THE SHEAR DECREASES
FASTER THAN FORECAST...CELIA COULD BECOME SIGNIFICANTLY STRONGER
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST AND SOONER.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/0900Z 12.0N  99.4W    55 KT
 12HR VT     20/1800Z 11.8N 100.4W    65 KT
 24HR VT     21/0600Z 11.7N 101.7W    75 KT
 36HR VT     21/1800Z 11.8N 102.8W    80 KT
 48HR VT     22/0600Z 11.8N 104.0W    85 KT
 72HR VT     23/0600Z 12.0N 106.7W    95 KT
 96HR VT     24/0600Z 13.0N 110.0W   100 KT
120HR VT     25/0600Z 14.0N 113.5W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
 
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