ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 200 PM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010 A SERIES OF MICROWAVE IMAGES FROM AMSU...SSMIS...SSM/I...AND WINDSAT SUGGEST THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF BLAS REMAINS DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS SATELLITE ANALYSIS THAT BOTH INDICATE ABOUT 10 KT OF NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY SHEAR OVER BLAS. ALSO...THE CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE INGESTING DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR INTO THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE CIRCULATION...WHICH HAS LIKELY CONTRIBUTED TO THE THINNING OF THE CLOUD SHIELD NORTH OF THE CENTER. WHILE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF THE DEEP CONVECTION HAVE DECREASED A LITTLE SINCE EARLIER TODAY...DVORAK FINAL T-NUMBERS REMAIN 3.5 FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BLAS HAS PEAKED IN INTENSITY. THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING INTO PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND A DRIER AND MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT DURING THE PERIOD... ESPECIALLY AFTER 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS A SLOW WEAKENING BEGINNING AFTER 12 HOURS AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM. BLAS SHOULD WEAKEN TO A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THE ABOVE-MENTIONED MICROWAVE PASSES LEND A LITTLE MORE CONFIDENCE TO BOTH THE INITIAL POSITION ESTIMATE AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 280/07. BLAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING WESTWARD SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE THROUGH ABOUT 48 HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME...AS THE CYCLONE WEAKENS...BLAS WILL BE STEERED A LITTLE SOUTH OF DUE WEST BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE INITIAL POSITION OF THE CYCLONE BEING FARTHER NORTH...AND REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/2100Z 16.7N 110.5W 55 KT 12HR VT 20/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W 55 KT 24HR VT 20/1800Z 17.1N 113.8W 50 KT 36HR VT 21/0600Z 17.3N 115.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 21/1800Z 17.3N 117.7W 40 KT 72HR VT 22/1800Z 17.0N 121.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 23/1800Z 16.5N 125.5W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 24/1800Z 16.0N 129.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BRENNAN NNNN
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