ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 8 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 19 2010 INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT BLAS HAS MAINTAINED A LARGE AREA OF COLD CONVECTIVE TOPS DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. HOWEVER...THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN...WITH A SHARP EASTERN EDGE... APPEARS SOMEWHAT AMORPHOUS AND RESEMBLES THAT OF A SHEARED TROPICAL CYCLONE. A 0451 UTC TRMM PASS CONFIRMS THAT BLAS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM THE EFFECTS OF NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR...WITH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER STILL ON THE NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTIVE CLOUDS. GIVEN THAT THERE HAS BEEN NO FURTHER INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION AND THE TAFB DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 3.0/45 KT...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS UNCHANGED AT 45 KT. CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE CENTER FIXES YIELD AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 285/6. GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A STRONG DEEP LAYER RIDGE EXTENDING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES INTO THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC WHICH SHOULD STEER BLAS ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD COURSE THROUGH 36-48 HOURS...WITH A MINOR INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THEREAFTER...BLAS IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A SHALLOW SYSTEM AND TURN WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST REPRESENTS A BLEND OF THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK AND THE MULTI-MODEL TVCN CONSENSUS. THE SHIPS MODEL AND UW-CIMSS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ANALYSES CONTINUE TO ANALYZE MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE. HOWEVER... THE SHIPS MODEL STILL INDICATES A REDUCTION IN THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...POSSIBLY A RESULT OF BLAS MOVING OUT OF THE MONSOONAL ENVIRONMENT IN WHICH IT HAS BEEN EMBEDDED AND INTO ONE WITH A DEEP LAYER OF EASTERLIES. HOWEVER...BEYOND 24 HOURS BLAS IS EXPECTED TO REACH COOLER WATER AND ENCOUNTER A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE...THE COMBINATION OF WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO WEAKENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REPRESENTS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH THE FORECAST CLOSELY FOLLOWING THE LGEM INTENSITY GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 19/0900Z 16.4N 109.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 19/1800Z 16.7N 110.4W 45 KT 24HR VT 20/0600Z 16.9N 112.1W 40 KT 36HR VT 20/1800Z 17.0N 114.0W 40 KT 48HR VT 21/0600Z 17.1N 115.9W 35 KT 72HR VT 22/0600Z 16.9N 119.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 23/0600Z 16.5N 123.0W 25 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 24/0600Z 16.0N 126.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN NNNN
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