ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BLAS DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 200 PM PDT THU JUN 17 2010 BANDING FEATURES HAVE BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF BLAS THIS AFTERNOON WHILE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER HAS REMAINED NEARLY STEADY. THE SHIP MAERSK SHAHRAN REPORTED TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS AND A PRESSURE OF 1002 MB AS IT MOVED NEAR THE CENTER OF BLAS EARLIER TODAY. THESE DATA...ALONG WITH INCREASING DVORAK T-NUMBERS FROM ALL AGENCIES...SUPPORT AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOW STRONGER EASTERLY WINDS ALOFT TO THE EAST OF BLAS...WHICH SHOULD CAUSE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR TO INCREASE IN A DAY OR SO. AROUND THAT TIME...THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING DEEPER INTO AN AREA OF STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS AND...PRESUMABLY...A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THESE FACTORS SHOULD LIMIT FURTHER STRENGTHENING OF BLAS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE LGEM AND INTENSITY CONSENSUS MODELS...AND IS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN BEFORE. BLAS HAS TURNED TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND IS NOW MOVING AT ABOUT 320/3. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGING BUILDING OVER MEXICO...WHICH SHOULD FORCE THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST AND WEST WITH TIME AND INCREASE ITS FORWARD SPEED. TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN MUCH BETTER AGREEMENT THAN EARLIER WITH THIS SCENARIO...AND THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO...BUT SLOWER THAN...THE VARIABLE CONSENSUS MODEL TVCN. WIND RADII AND 12 FOOT SEAS INFORMATION HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON REPORTS FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED SHIP. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/2100Z 15.2N 105.8W 40 KT 12HR VT 18/0600Z 15.4N 106.3W 45 KT 24HR VT 18/1800Z 15.6N 107.1W 45 KT 36HR VT 19/0600Z 15.8N 107.7W 40 KT 48HR VT 19/1800Z 16.2N 108.8W 40 KT 72HR VT 20/1800Z 16.7N 112.0W 35 KT 96HR VT 21/1800Z 16.7N 115.0W 25 KT 120HR VT 22/1800Z 16.5N 119.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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