ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP032010 800 AM PDT THU JUN 17 2010 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CONVECTION HAS FINALLY BECOME PERSISTENT AND ORGANIZED AROUND THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF MANZANILLO THAT THE NHC HAS BEEN MONITORING FOR SEVERAL DAYS. A 1215 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS THAT THE CENTER IS ON THE NORTHEASTERN SIDE OF A BALL OF CONVECTION. DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB/SAB ARE 2.0...30 KT...AND THIS WILL BE THE INITIAL INTENSITY. THE DEPRESSION HAS A NARROW WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE INCREASING EASTERLY SHEAR...COOLER SSTS AND DRIER AIR IMPINGE ON THE SYSTEM. THE NHC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. THE INITIAL MOTION HAS BEEN HARD TO DETERMINE...BUT THE DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY TO THE NORTHEAST. MIDDLE-LEVEL RIDGING OVER MEXICO SHOULD STRENGTHEN DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...WHICH WOULD STEER THE DEPRESSION GENERALLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST AT AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. ONE COMPLICATING FACTOR IS THAT THE MODELS HAVE CONSISTENTLY MOVED THE PRECURSOR LOW FROM THE DEPRESSION MUCH TOO QUICKLY TO THE WEST...PROBABLY BECAUSE IT HAS BEEN ENTANGLED IN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE. ALTHOUGH THE DEPRESSION IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE SEPARATED FROM THAT FEATURE...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL STAY ON THE SLOWER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE...NOT TOO FAR FROM THE ECMWF MODEL. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 17/1500Z 15.3N 105.3W 30 KT 12HR VT 18/0000Z 15.4N 105.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 18/1200Z 15.6N 105.5W 35 KT 36HR VT 19/0000Z 15.7N 106.3W 35 KT 48HR VT 19/1200Z 15.9N 107.5W 30 KT 72HR VT 20/1200Z 16.5N 110.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 21/1200Z 16.5N 112.5W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120HR VT 22/1200Z 16.5N 115.0W 20 KT...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN
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